Publications

Calibrating Ensemble Forecasting Models with Sparse Data in the Social Sciences – With Jacob M. Montgomery and Michael D. Ward (2014) (Accepted for Publication at International Journal of Forecasting)

Cabinet Formation and Portfolio Distribution in European Multiparty Systems – With Josh Cutler, Scott De Marchi, Max Gallop, Michael Laver and Matthias Orlovski. 2014. British Journal of Political Science.

Technology and Collective Action: The Effect of Cell Phone Coverage on Political Violence in Africa – With Jan Pierskalla. 2013. American Political Science Review. 107(2). 207-244. Online Appendix. Response to Weidmann on Reporting Bias

Learning from the Past and Stepping into the Future: Toward a New Generation of Conflict Prediction – With Michael D. Ward, Nils W. Metternich, Cassy Dorff, Max Gallop, Anna Schultz and Simon Weschle. 2013. International Studies Review. 15(4). 473-490.

Ensemble Predictions of the 2012 US Presidential Election – With Jacob M. Montgomery and Michael D. Ward. 2012. PS: Political Science & Politics. 45(4): 651 – 654.

Improving Predictions Using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging – With Jacob M. Montgomery and Michael D. Ward. 2012. Political Analysis. 20(3): 271-291.